Tuesday, June 12, 2007

MACKINAC STRAITS, MICHIGAN

From camp, the Star Line Shuttle takes up to Mackinaw City docks to take the 18 minute hydro-jet ferry to Mackinac Island. People with their suitcases who are staying on the island ride this ferry, as did a bride, bridegroom, bride's maids, grooms, parents, and guests. The wedding would be held at a beautiful Island House Hotel. It was a strange sight to see people in gowns and tuxedos next to folks in shorts and t-shirts.
Below is one of several ferrys going to Mackinac Island.
The plume from the hydro-jet is quite enormous. The Great Lakes are known for their many shipwrecks. The reason is that these large lakes have waves that are close together in bad storms. One wave hits a boat broadside and as the boat is righting itself, another wave hits it broadside again causing the boat to capsize.
A quaint church to our right as we approach the Island and above is a row of "cottages."
Below another view as we approach the island; the docks and above a very lovely home.

One of the main towers of the Mackinaw bridge. This bridge is very impressive as the views are beautiful crossing over. This bridge is the largest expansion bridge in the country.

Another view of the center of the bridge.
This is a retired lighthouse that welcomes visitors to the Island.

One of many freighters leaving Lake Michigan, crossing the straits, and then entering Lake Huron.



MACKINAC ISLAND, MICHIGAN

Mackinac Island is 8 miles around and about 5 miles across. This is one of the neighborhoods. There are 500 year round residents. The area gets 100 inches of snow a year, and the lake is frozen over for several months. Folks use snowmobiles to cross the lake; however, they have a Christmas tree path from the Island across the lake to town. Snows can come up suddenly and white out conditions have caused some to die out on the lake as they cannot find their way back. The tree path guides the residents during the winter.
This was the week of the Lilac Festival and the lilacs were perfuming the air and showing their beautiful shades of lilac.
There are no motorized vehicles allowed on the island so horses and bikes get you were you want to go. There are horses to ride, horse carriage tours, horse taxi carriages, hotel carriages and you would be amazed how many suitcases a porter can transport by bicycle.
We had dinner at Victory Inn which was rated as the best restaurant in upper Michigan. Walter wearing his favorite shirt.

This group is starting out on the historic island tour.
A view of the marina from Marquette Park.
A view of the village and the marina from Marquette Park. This park is in the middle of the village main street and is a very peaceful place to stop and relax.

If you are staying at The Grand Hotel, this is the carriage that takes you there.
The Grand Hotel is one of the 20 best hotels in the world.
The trees and plants are many and lovely to see and smell.


There are 100s of bikes all over town. The bikes and horses co-exist very well--you just have to be careful of the horse chips. There is a cleaning crew coming by regularly, but still . . . .
Another charming home with flowers and picket fence.

Are you thirsty too?
Another view of my most favored flowers--the lilacs





MACKINAC ISLAND - CARRIAGE RIDE

At Market St. and Main St. the historic tour carriage await their customers. The horses are well cared for with a blacksmith on hand, roomy stalls in the barns, and a day off spent roaming and grazing in the pastures. They are taken off the island for the winter.

Harry and Earl pulled our tour carriage as we began slowly through the downtown area.

The first fire engine on the island and one of the early carriages.
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One of the many lovely fields we passed. It is hard to imagine 100 inches of snow over the winter in this summer meadow of lush trees.

Below is a view of Lake Huron. The water is emerald green to deep blue/green. Today it is mellow and very calm. Other days it has been restless with whitecaps and a sense of its raw power.
The Island cemetery for soldiers who were killed defending this island from the British. It is a quiet lonely place that catches one by surprise. You're traveling along a road in the woods and then all of sudden there's the cemetery.

A well preserved stone church.
A pond in The Grand Hotel's golf course.

Driving through a shaded street. Up ahead, the street forks to the right and passes in front of The Grand Hotel.

The Island has a fairly flat perimeter road encircling rocky bluffs around most of the circumference, and a high point near the cemetery at the center, where there are steep hills. This is part of the Eastern shore bluffs, and is call Arch Rock.

One last view of Lake Huron from the bluff as we begin our descent and are dropped off at Fort Mackinac.

Thursday, June 07, 2007

A BIT OFF-TOPIC: ON COGNITIVE BIASES

I invest, and therefore I need to be self-aware about my cognitive biases. That is why this Wikipedia list of biases that are HARD-WIRED in the minds of most humans is so intriguing and worth studying.

The 26 most studied and widely accepted cognitive biases:

Bandwagon effect - the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink, herd behaviour, and manias. Carl Jung pioneered the idea of the collective unconscious which is considered by Jungian psychologists to be responsible for this cognitive bias. To buy during periods of intense selling means leaving the safety of the crowd, standing out, risking humiliation.

Bias blind spot - the tendency not to compensate for one’s own cognitive biases.

Choice-supportive bias - the tendency to remember one’s choices as better than they actually were.

Confirmation bias - the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions.

Congruence bias - the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing.

Contrast effect - the enhancement or diminishment of a weight or other measurement when compared with recently observed contrasting object.

Déformation professionnelle - the tendency to look at things according to the conventions of one’s own profession, forgetting any broader point of view.

Disconfirmation bias - the tendency for people to extend critical scrutiny to information which contradicts their prior beliefs and uncritically accept information that is congruent with their prior beliefs.

Endowment effect - the tendency for people to value something more as soon as they own it.

Focusing effect - prediction bias occurring when people place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome.

Hyperbolic discounting - the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, the closer to the present both payoffs are.

Illusion of control - the tendency for human beings to believe they can control or at least influence outcomes which they clearly cannot.

Impact bias - the tendency for people to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states.

Information bias - the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action.

Loss aversion - the tendency for people to strongly prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains (see also sunk cost effects)

Neglect of probability - the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty.

Mere exposure effect - the tendency for people to express undue liking for things merely because they are familiar with them.

Omission bias - The tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions).

Outcome bias - the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.

Planning fallacy - the tendency to underestimate task-completion times.

Post-purchase rationalization - the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.

Pseudocertainty effect - the tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.

Selective perception - the tendency for expectations to affect perception. Seeing patterns where none exist is counter-productive when it comes to investing.

Status quo bias - the tendency for people to like things to stay relatively the same.

Von Restorff effect - the tendency for an item that “stands out like a sore thumb” to be more likely to be remembered than other items.

Zero-risk bias - preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.

Wisdom dictates that we MUST assume EVERYONE struggles, either consciously or unconsciously with these biases, and so we must allow for them and not be surprised or annoyed when we find them in others!
Complete list of cognitive biases - Wikipedia

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

CROSS VILLAGE - LEGS INN

Cross Village is a very small village; however, the famous Legs Inn brings many to see this unusual restaurant and to eat their excellent Polish food.
The inn was built over a period of many years by Polish immigrant, Stanley Smclak.. Stanley, a self-trained artist, used tree roots, limbs, and driftwood to carved decorative objects inside the inn along with decorative furniture.
The lobby of the inn shows some of the woodwork. The Odawa Indians and other residents helped in the construction using all locally gathered timbers and stones.

Indian relics from the native Indians that lived in the area in the early 1900s.
The building is very unusual and quite interesting both inside and out. It was called Legs Inn because stove legs were used to decorate the edges of the roof.